AAA forecasts 54.6 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving.
That’s a 1.5% increase over 2021 and 98% of pre-pandemic volumes. This year is projected to be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA started tracking in 2000.
Most travelers will drive to their destinations, much like last year. Nearly 49 million people are expected to travel by car. While Thanksgiving road trips have risen slightly – up 0.4% from 2021, vehicle travel remains 2.5% below 2019 levels.
The price of gas has fallen slightly in the past week, AAA reported earlier.
Air travel is up nearly 8% over 2021, with 4.5 million Americans flying to their Thanksgiving destinations this year. That’s an increase of more than 330,000 travelers and nearly 99% of the 2019 volume.
AAA says airports will be crowded and extra time will be needed.
Americans are also ramping up travel by other modes of transportation. More than 1.4 million travelers are going out of town for Thanksgiving by bus, train, or cruise ship. That’s an increase of 23% from 2021 and 96% of the 2019 volume.
2005 and 2019 have been the busiest years for Thanksgiving travel, respectively, since AAA started tracking in 2000.
The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Wednesday, November 23 to Sunday, November 27.
The consulting firm INRIX expects severe congestion in many areas, with some drivers experiencing more than double normal delays. To avoid the most hectic times, INRIX recommends traveling early in the morning on Wednesday or before 11am on Thanksgiving Day and avoiding travel between 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
About the forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices, including stock indices; interest rates; housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared on the week of Oct. 10, 2022.
