PJM Interconnection and its member utilities are forecasting adequate supplies of electricity while taking steps to avoid a Texas-style grid disaster.
The one cloud over the regional grid operator’s outlook – the possibility of a railroad strike – faded with the passage of federal legislation. PJM said a prolonged strike would have affected coal-fired power plants.
PJM, which operates the bulk electric grid in 13 states and the District of Columbia, expects to have over 186,000 megawatts to meet the forecast peak demand of approximately 137,000 megawatts. PJM’s all-time winter peak was 143,295 MW, set on Feb. 20, 2015.
“Planning to keep the power flowing during the cold weather months, and all year long, is important to the 65 million people we serve,” said President and CEO Manu Asthana. “We are constantly working with our members to learn from extreme weather events across the country, and together we have further strengthened our preparations and processes for this winter.”
PJM has been in the news in Delaware after its decision to keep the Indian River Power Plant in Sussex County open for a few more years, due to the need to strengthen the grid in preparation for its shutdown. The higher cost of operating the plant will be absorbed by ratepayers.
In response to fuel-supply concerns dating back to fall 2021, and lessons learned from recent extreme weather around the nation, PJM has added new rules and requirements to its cold weather guidelines for operators. This year, for example, PJM for the first time is requiring that generators provide verification of their facilities’ cold weather operating temperature limit.
In addition, stakeholders in November approved permanent rule changes to PJM’s emergency procedures to account for generator constraints resulting from supply chain issues, fuel shortages or regulatory restraints, including emissions limitations.
Last year, following cold weather issues in Texas during February 2021, PJM launched an analysis that resulted in additional improvements to its winter preparedness efforts. Those improvements included approving rules to assist transmission owners in identifying and putting a priority on service to critical facilities in emergencies and further improving information sharing with the natural gas industry.
Texas operates its own grid with looser regulation and was unable deal with demand during a period of low temperatures and winter weather. The result was rolling blackouts and high electric bills in areas of the state.
In 2021, PJM initiated a weekly fuel and non-fuel consumables data request for all generators that utilize coal or oil as their primary or backup fuel. Capturing this data more frequently allows PJM to better understand any fuel supply, supply chain or transportation issues.
“We now have better visibility into generators’ supply of fuels and other material critical to their operation, and we expect that recent rule changes will enhance the flexibility those generators need to rebuild their supplies when facing shortfalls beyond their control,” said Mike Bryson, Sr. Vice President − Operations. “This coordination is helpful as we work together to ensure that, even in the most extreme weather or other challenging circumstances, the grid remains reliable.”
