First vaccine shipment numbers will be modest

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Good afternoon everyone,

As vaccine candidates from Pfizer and Moderna move toward likely emergency approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, everyone is wondering how many early doses will be available.

As a  recent Washington Post story (subscription) noted,  the number will be modest.

That became clear when Maine Gov. Janet Mills confirmed that about a third of anticipated doses would be delivered in the state in the first batch.

In November, Delaware Division of Public Health Director Dr. Karyn Rattay estimated 15,000 initial doses would be available.

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DPH confirmed today that about 17,000  doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are expected in the first batch. It’s a drop in the bucket but will aid front-line medical workers.

As the Post story noted, Operation Warp Speed, the multi-billion dollar all-out effort to roll out a vaccine, ran into the usual manufacturing bumps along the way. 

Overly optimistic estimates from vaccine makers and election-year rhetoric heightened expectations, despite words of caution from health care officials.

The supply of vaccines will increase but will still present monumental distribution and administration challenges.  Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses and require freezers (in Pfizer’s case, specialized ultra-cold storage).

Dr. Rick Hong, medical director for the state Division of Health, said at last week’s briefing, federal officials have told the state that it is “ahead of the curve” in vaccine planning.

One wild card is the third vaccine candidate from AstraZeneca and Oxford University.  The vaccine is cheaper and can be stored at temperatures slightly above freezing.

The AZ-Oxford vaccine trials are not as far along, due in part to a pause when an unusual illness was reported.  Details are few, but it was later determined that the condition was not linked to the vaccine.

We also have the curious finding that a smaller second dose was more effective than two full doses and controversy over whether the AZ trials will meet the “gold standard” of the Food and Drug Administration. 

Other vaccine candidates are waiting in the wings, and any showing success will be needed in vaccinating a worldwide population.

We should learn more today as Pfizer holds a briefing and the FDA commences hearings.  Have a great evening, and stay safe. – Doug Rainey, chief content officer.

 

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