A blue wave? UD poll shows big leads for Biden, Coons, Rochester, Carney


Democratic statewide candidates and presidential nominee Joe Biden hold commanding leads, according to a University of Delaware poll.

The findings from the Center for Political Communicationis closely watched, since the state is rarely polled, due to its size and lack of competitive races.

To the surprise of few, The UD Center for Political Communication poll shows that 54 percent of likely voters in Delaware say they will vote for Biden, while 33 percent support President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

“The poll results confirm that Biden is the heavy favorite to win his home state’s electoral votes,” said Professor Paul Brewer, research director of the UD Center for Political Communication. “Biden’s margin in Delaware is also consistent with a seven to eight-point national lead for him.”

In Delaware, Biden leads Trump by more than a two-to-one margin among women. The presidential race is much closer among men as well as among Kent and Sussex County voters. Trump carried both Kent and Sussex in 2016.

The numbers are comparable for Delaware Gov. John Carney who holds a 29-point lead in his race for reelection.

Among those polled, 55 percent support the Democratic incumbent, while 26 percent of likely voters say they’ll cast their ballot for the Republican nominee and political newcomer Julianne Murray. Murray, a Sussex County lawyer is part of the Reopen Delaware movement. She sued the governor over restrictions.

Despite the presence of a female opponent Carney has a 40-point lead among women with a 15-point lead among men. He holds a three to one margin over Murray in New Castle County with tighter margins to the south.

The incumbents are also far ahead in Delaware’s Congressional races. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Chris Coons holds a 30-point margin over Republican Lauren Witzke. In the U.S. House race, Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester leads Republican Lee Murphy by 22 points, 51 percent to 29 percent. Murphy is a retired Amtrak conductor.

Witzke has conducted campaign rallies alongside Trump supporters in high-visibility locations. The rallies led to one egg-throwing incident and a supporter who according to witnesses aimed a gun at a counter-protester.

Witzke was in the news last week for saying she received protection from the Proud Boys, a white nationalist group.

Coons and Blunt Rochester lead by wide margins among women and narrower margins among men.As is the case with other candidates, both Democrats dominate in New Castle County, with smaller margins or a tie in Kent and Sussex County.

“The big overall leads for Carney, Coons, and Blunt Rochester reinforce the First State’s status as a solidly blue state,” Brewer said. “Democrats have dominated recent statewide elections in Delaware. So far, none of this year’s Republican candidates shows signs of breaking that pattern.”

The study was fielded by Abt Associates and obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 976 adults living in Delaware, including 911 registered voters and 847 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus-minus four percent.

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