Mock elections  a preview of today’s results?


Afternoon all,

Delaware does not see much polling. That’s why some folks took a look at last week’s mock election held at high schools around the state.

The mock election has been a fairly reliable indicator of the final outcome of statewide races. If that is the case, Delaware would see a sweep of statewide offices by Democrats.

Nearly 30,000 votes were cast by students in 142 Delaware schools.

Since 2010, the Student Mock Election has correctly predicted the results of 18 out of 21 statewide races in Delaware, an 86-percent accuracy rate.

The results showed U.S. Sen. Tom Carper, U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunter Rochester and Democrat Attorney General Candidate Kathleen Jennings winning by solid margins.

An earlier University of Delaware poll that did not include down-ballot races, also showed Carper and Rochester with lopsided leads.

Things get tighter in the races for auditor and treasurer. Davis edged out Ken Simpler in the battle for state treasurer, with Kathleen McGuiness coming out ahead over James Spadola.

Both Spadola and Simpler can take comfort in the fact that Democrats won the nod in the 2014, mock vote, but did not go on to victory.

Not suitable for a mock election wereState Senate races. Republicans are close to winning a majority in that body. The question is whether Delaware will see a “blue wave” and fewer split tickets. A few Dems are nervous, given the current mood of the electorate and the lack of same-day voting that can reduce last-minute swings.

Not helping Republicans are the two candidates at the top of the ticket. Arlett’s hard-right positions reduce his appeal. Walker comes with a lot of baggage, including the possibility that he won because his name sounded familiar. The high-profile governor of Wisconsin shares the same name.

Each election year, the Student Mock Election is conducted by teachers statewide in partnership with the Office of the State Elections Commissioner, the Delaware Department of State, the University of Delaware Democracy Project and the League of Women Voters.

The effort includes lesson plans and classroom discussion about elections and the process, with fourth through 12th-grade students having access to a special online voting portal in their schools administered by state elections officials and the Department of Technology and Information.

Vote today. The newsletter returns on Wednesday. – Doug Rainey, publisher

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