Labor market officials are advising caution in reading too much into the unemployment figures for February.
Delaware’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February was 4.6 percent, down from 4.7 percent in January, the Delaware Department of Labor reported.
The department reported 21,800 unemployed Delawareans in February 2016 compared to 22,800 in February 2015.
The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in February, unchanged from January 2016. In February 2015, the U.S. unemployment rate was 5.5 percent while Delaware’s rate was 4.9 percent.
In February 2016, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment was 456,200, down from 457,500 in January. Since February 2015, Delaware’s total nonfarm jobs have increased by 11,200 an increase of 2.6 percent. Nationally, jobs during that period increased 1.9 percent.
The latest figures come after seasonal revisions that reported a stronger performance for the state when it came to the ability to create jobs. The revisions are made when payroll data, rather than estimates are used.
“Especially at this me of year, when seasonal patterns can be difficult to distinguish from sampling variability, it is prudent to view the monthly data with a bit of skepticism,” the reported noted. “This month’s reported loss of 1,300 jobs since January stems mainly from changes in the seasonal adjustment factors in just two industries: Administrative Support and State Government. If we were to use last year’s factors in just those two industries (and seasonality really shouldn’t change much in just one year), February would show a gain of 400 total jobs.”
The report also noted that two months into the year Delaware’s unemployment rate has dropped by 3/10ths of one percent, bringing to mind the last three years where the jobless rate fell sharply, then rose and ended up being adjusted downward.
The upward pattern fueled criticism during the year of the economic policies of the Markell administration and Democrats who control both houses of the Legislature.
One category that was suspect in 2015 was retailing, which showed a large decline during much of the year, despite he opening of more stores in the Christiana Mall area. Indeed, retail employment figures were revised when employer payroll data was used, rather than estimates.
“The main takeaway here should be that the monthly data are noisy, and a longer view provides a better picture. For Delaware at this me that picture continues to show overall moderate to strong economic growth,” the report concluded.
A January report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed the overall economic performance of the state running ahead of neighboring areas of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
