A CNBC and SurveyMonkey poll of small business owners showed President Joe Biden with an improved approval rating.
After a streak of six quarterly declines from the first two years of Biden’s presidency, the survey found that President Biden’s approval rating among small business owners went up to 34% from 31% in Q3 after the midterm elect,ions that did not resulted in an expected Republican sweep.
The GOP had viewed the president’s low approval ratings as a sign that voters will send more of their candidates to Congress.
Despite the increase, the President’s approval rating is still nine points below its peak of 43%, which came in the first quarter of his presidency.
The fourth quarter survey, which was conducted November 9-16, 2022, found that inflation is top of mind for small business owners, with 45% saying inflation is the biggest risk to their business right now.
Nearly all of those surveyed (92%) say they are concerned about inflation in general, with 69% saying they are “very concerned.” And the majority of small business owners don’t expect a reprieve anytime soon: 78% expect inflation to continue to rise, and just 28% of small business owners are confident in the Federal Reserve’s ability to get inflation under control.
Even though there are worries about inflation, a smaller number of small business owners think the economy has fallen into a recession compared to three months ago. Around half (49%) of small business owners say the U.S. economy is in a recession now, compared to 57% who said the economy was in a recession in the third quarter. More small business owners (24%) now say a recession is coming in the first half of 2023, which is up from 14% in Q3. However, sixty-one percent of small business owners across all industries, business types and business sizes say they’re prepared to withstand a recession if one occurs.
Overall, the Small Business Confidence Index, a number based on responses to eight questions in the survey, rose slightly to a score of 43 in Q4 2022, one point higher than the last quarter which was the all-time low since CNBC and SurveyMonkey began surveying small business owners in 2017. Despite this confidence, forty-nine percent of small business owners rate the economy as poor, which is roughly unchanged from Q3 2022 (51%).
“This first uptick in President Biden’s approval rating is significant on its own, but it is just one of many signs that conditions have improved over the past few months,” said Laura Wronski, director of research at Momentive. “More small business owners now than last quarter approve of the job the president is doing, fewer say we’re in a recession, and inflation is still Main Street’s top concern even though prices have begun to stabilize. We end the quarter and the year in a calmer place than we began.”
Inflation fears continue to rock the stock market, with investors hoping that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with interest rate increases.
Each quarter, CNBC and SurveyMonkey poll over 2,000 small business owners aiming to measure the vitality of the American economy as well as the view from Main Street on jobs, taxes, and other hot topics.
Other issues affecting small business owners, other than inflation:
- – 14% of small business owners say labor shortages are the biggest risk to their businesses right now, which is a record high over the past year.
- – Staffing concerns are especially prominent for larger small businesses: 36% of small businesses with 50 or more employees say labor shortages are the biggest risk to their business right now, outpacing the issue of inflation (27%).
- – A record-low 7% of small business owners say Covid-19 is the biggest risk to their business right now, down from 9% last quarter.
- – 17% say supply chain issues are their biggest risk, down five points from this time last year (23%).
Inflation views
- – 43% of small business owners say “controlling inflation” should be the top priority for the next Congress.
- – 56% of Republican small business owners, but just 21% of Democrats, say “controlling inflation” should be the top priority.
- – Other top priorities among Republican small business owners: immigration reform (14%), and personal income tax reform (6%).
- – Other top priorities among Democrat small business owners: Reproductive rights (18%), Voting rights (12%) and gun policy (12%).
For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/cnbc-small-business-q4-2022/.
