Hello everyone,
How far is Delaware from the peak in Coronavirus deaths?
A closely watched site from Texas indicates that it could already be here.
The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium estimates that there is a 37 percent chance that Delaware is past its peak, a 67 percent chance that the peak will be reached within the next week and a nine in ten chance that we’ll see the other side of the fatality curve in two weeks.
Under the Texas model, The peak occurs when the average daily death rate declines.
The index sees a 99 percent chance that the nation as a whole is past its peak.
The model estimates the extent of social distancing using geolocation data from mobile phones. It assumes that the extent of social distancing does not change during the period of forecasting.
The model is designed to predict deaths resulting from only a single wave of COVID-19 transmission and does not predict what might happen from a possible second wave.
The chances of the model not being accurate are higher for a state the size of Delaware if we see another wave of deaths at long-term care facilities. Another well-regarded tracking site from the University of Washington was off the mark when it came to Delaware, according state officials.
Whatever the case, the death toll will be high from COVID-19. The Texas site estimates the final Delaware figure will range from 127 to 170.
By the way, if someone tells you that coronavirus being the equivalent of the flu, point out the following – Delaware had 11 flu deaths during 2019-2020 season. Granted, social distancing probably reduced that number.
At the time this column was written, the number of coronavirus deaths in Delaware stands at 72.
Meanwhile, the debate will continue on when Delaware will be open for business and (pardon cliché) “what it will look like.”
For now, the state has “hot spots” with clusters of cases that need to be addressed. – Doug Rainey, chief content officer.
