Study: Delaware to take a beating from extreme heat

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A study indicates Delaware will take a beating from extreme heat in coming years.

Every state will be affected, according to a new report  and accompanying peer-reviewed study from  Environmental Research Communications, and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Only a few mountainous regions would remain extreme heat refuges by the century’s end.

The average number of days per year nationwide with a heat index above 105 degrees Fahrenheit would more than quadruple to 24 by midcentury and increase eight-fold to 40 by late century. 

Climate skepticism

The findings are not universally accepted, with climate change skeptics claiming that other parts of the earth are cooling down and the current warming is due to natural forces rather than fossil fuels.

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The analysis carries the name  “Killer Heat in the United States: Climate Choices and the Future of Dangerously Hot Days.”

By the end of the century, with no action to reduce global emissions, parts of Florida and Texas would experience the equivalent of at least five months per year on average when the “feels like” temperature exceeds 100 degrees Fahrenheit, with most of these days even surpassing 105 degrees, the study indicated.

The analysis calculated the frequency of days with heat index thresholds above 90 degrees Fahrenheit—the point at which outdoor workers generally become susceptible to heat-related illness—as well as above 100 and 105 degrees Fahrenheit, when the National Weather Service (NWS) generally recommends issuing heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, respectively.

Here’s the outlook for Delaware.

  • Historically, there have been 31 days per year on average with a heat index above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. This would increase to 75 days per year on average by mid-century and 104 by the century’s end.
  • Historically, there have been five days per year on average with a heat index above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. This would increase to 34 days per year on average by mid-century and 61 by the century’s end. Of areas a population of 50,000 or more in the state, Dover would experience the highest frequency of these days.
  • By the end of the century, an estimated 900,000 people would be exposed to a heat index above 105 degrees Fahrenheit for the equivalent of a month or more per year. By limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, all residents would avoid such days of extreme conditions.
  • Historically, the state as a whole has experienced zero “off-the-charts” heat days in an average year. This would increase to one day per year on average by midcentury and five
  • the highest frequency of these days. Limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would cap the frequency of such days at one per year on average.
  • By the end of the century, more than 20,000 people would be exposed to a heat index above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the equivalent of one month or more per year. By limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, all residents would avoid such days of extreme conditions.  
  • Historically, there has been an average of zero days per year with a heat index above 105 degrees Fahrenheit. This would increase to one day per year on average by midcentury and eight by the century’s end. Limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would limit the frequency of such days to zero per year on average. 

In addition, the report includes a range of preparedness recommendations for governments, including: investing in heat-resilient infrastructure; creating heat adaptation and emergency response plans; expanding funding for programs to provide cooling assistance to low- and fixed-income households; directing the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) to set up protective occupational

Spreadsheets can be sorted by cityby countyby stateby region and by population.  

To get projected  results for your county by using an interactive widget, click here

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