Analysis: A look at possible effects of climate change and vulnerable coastal homes

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A report from an online home information service and a nonprofit indicates that more than half a billion dollars of residential property in Delaware could be at risk, due to sea level rise and climate change.

The report from Zillow and Climate Central   took a look at vulnerable coastal areas in the U.S. 

The map below show “risk zone,” with the report estimating that more than 700 homes in Delaware are at risk. The risk rises sharply if nothing is done in attempting to reduce the effects of climate change, the report indicated. (Editor’s note) Some browsers may not click to the state information)

“The results are clear. If the world makes moderate cuts to greenhouse-gas pollution — roughly in line with the Paris agreement on climate, whose targets the international community is not on track to meet — some 10,000 existing homes built after 2009 will be at risk of flooding at least once per year, on average, by 2050,” the report stated. “The figures for 2100 are about three times higher — and five times higher if pollution grows unchecked.”

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New Jersey appears to be especially vulnerable, especially after thousands of homes were rebuilt after Hurricane Sandy. Delaware narrowly escaped the path of Sandy and saw only scattered damage.

The Climate Central report comes as insurers, state officials and others look for signs that that climate change concerns are beginning to affect prices of vulnerable coastal properties. 

Signs have indicated that a series of destructive hurricanes have started to put  a dent in real estate prices,  according to a report from the Brooklyn, NY-based First Street Foundation.

However, the report did not include  Maryland and Delaware. A spokesperson for the foundation said updated data on the two states is expected to be posted in the coming months.

It is possible that Delaware home prices in vulnerable areas are not as subject to fears over superstorms.

This could be due to the lack of such storms in recent decades, affluent residents who are willing to take risks,  and low property taxes in Sussex and Kent counties. In recent decades, billions of dollars in new homes have been built in once undeveloped areas in Delaware and throughout the East Coast. 

The State of Delaware has taken the lead in efforts to deal with the possible effects of rising sea levels and climate change. Delaware is down to one coal-fired power plant and has a mandate calling for 25 percent of the state’s electricity to come from alternative sources, such as solar. 

Sussex County, by contrast, is the home of many of Delaware’s climate change skeptics. The County Council has largely stayed out of efforts to deal with coastal development in vulnerable areas.  In Sussex, the real estate and development industry is a  major employer in the county with close ties to government officials at all levels. 

A related story on the vulnerable real estate in Delaware was posted over the weekend.  The story  was a joint effort of Climate Central and DelawareOnline. (News Journal)

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