DECON First believes that businesses can only be successful over time by recognizing and adjusting to emerging trends. The latest Delaware Population Consortium projections provide one such reality check.
DECON First believes that businesses can only be successful over time by recognizing and adjusting to emerging trends. The latest Delaware Population Consortium projections provide one such reality check.
The Delaware Population Consortium (DPC) is an informal, cooperative organization including state, county, and local governments that works year-round to produce and share an annual, common set of population and household projections for the state of Delaware; New Castle, Kent and Sussex Counties; and major municipalities in Delaware.
A quick examination of the DPC projections through 2020 present a clear roadmap to guide Delaware businesses.
STATEWIDE: There are substantial changes coming in population by age cohort. While the total population of Delaware is projected to increase just 4.1 percent over the next five years, the population of residents 65 and over will rise four times faster, withthe largest jump among persons age 70-79. This means that the gray wave of baby-boomers will continue to be at a relatively active and healthy stage of life. The crush on home healthcare and nursing homes won’t begin to kick in until after 2020.
The population of school age children will rise slower than the state, and the number of residents age 20-24 will fall by 11 percent. So there will be less growth pressure on the public schools and the market for entry level labor will be tighter while the rental market will soften.
The number of Delaware residents between the ages of 40-59 is also expected to drop. This reduces the supply of the most experienced and typically most productive workers, and may lead to even more net in-commuting.
The restructuring of Delaware’s population by race will also continue. Among every 100 net new residents added over the five years, only 12 will be white while 39 will be Hispanic and 31 will be black. There will also be large gains in the Asian population. As DECON First has stated before, businesses selling directly to households must recognize the differences in preferences and marketing channels among the races.
ACROSS THE COUNTIES: The unique economies of Delaware’s three counties are reflected in the differences in the expected population growth rates through 2020. New Castle County’s population is expected to rise just 2.8 percent. This includes an almost 2 percent decrease in the white population as the black population increases 6 percent and the Hispanic population over 17 percent.
At the other end of the spectrum Sussex County’s population is expected to grow 6.7 percent. Not surprisingly given the flow of retirees from out-of-state to the beaches, this includes a 25 percent jump in the persons age 70 and older. By race the increases expected in the populations of whites and blacks are similar, while the Hispanic population is projected to jump 18 percent.
While the DPC projections will certainly not pan out accurately to the first decimal place, the general trends are written in the stone of birth and death rates and current patterns of migration. Successful businesses will adjust accordingly using the marketing strategies developed by firms such as Delaware’s eVolve Brand Marketing.
DECON First focuses on the emerging trends that drive delaware consumer markets. Obviously this includes substantial demographic changes, and these can be tracked down to the community level to assist businesses.
DECON First uses economics to strengthen Delaware business. This is accomplished by providing accurate, objective, and relevant analysis of the economy, coupled with best practice recommendations that deliver new customers. More detailed analysis is found in the DECON First SUMMER Delaware Economic Review and Economic Briefs. Direct questions to info@deconfirst.com
