The regional grid can remain stable with the addition of more natural gas and renewable resources, a recent analysis claimed. However, the report notes that an increased reliance on any one generation type brings resilience risks not accounted for under traditional reliability standards.
The report came from PJM Interconnection as a push begins on the federal level to reduce clean air standards with the apparent goal of stopping the decline in coal-fired power. PJM is based near King of Prussia, PA, with a constituency that includes the Exelon family of utilities, including Delmarva Power
The report responded to questions about the effects of fuel diversity on reliability. PJM stakeholders had questioned whether the system is losing too many traditional resources as coal plants retire and nuclear owners consider their future. (See full report below)
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PJM stakeholders, primarily utilities and geneation companies, had questioned whether the system is losing too many traditional sources as coal plants retire and nuclear owners consider their future. In addition to stiffer clean air standards, coal plants are losing out as vast natural gas supplies are tapped in the region. and elsewhere.
“This analysis underscores our responsibility to continue to operate the system reliably, and explore the role of resilience, the ability to tolerate unforeseen shocks and continue to deliver electricity,” said PJM CEO Andy Ott. “Different resources provide different reliability attributes, though new technology or regulations have the ability to improve those capabilities.
“PJM needs to work with stakeholders and the industry to determine whether markets and operation structures need to shift to make sure that necessary levels of generator reliability characteristics are maintained in future resource mixes.”
The report analyzed the availability of generator reliability attributes essential to the grid under potential resource portfolios. Those qualities include frequency response, voltage control, ramp, fuel assurance, flexibility, black start, environmental restrictions and equivalent availability.
“We found that the risk to the system wasn’t that resources couldn’t necessarily provide reliability attributes but that the potential concentration of a single fuel source or low-probability, high-impact events could cause significant impacts to the system,” said Michael Bryson, vice president – Operations, who led the study.
PJM created a “composite reliability index” to assess the operational reliability of various resources across four states: normal peak conditions, light load, extremely hot weather and extremely cold weather.
“The study concluded that our current portfolio is both reliable and diverse,” Bryson said.
The study also found that a more diverse fuel portfolio isn’t necessarily more reliable.
Delaware is feeling the effects of one stabilization effort, a proposed power line that PJM sees as necessary to improve reliability of the grid that feeds electricity from the massive reactor complex in Salem County, NJ. The relief line would have little impact on the reliability of power on the Delmarva Peninsula, but could hike power bills of large users by hundreds and even thousands of dollars a month.
The relief line would have little impact on the reliability of power on the Delmarva Peninsula, but could hike power bills of large users by hundreds and even thousands of dollars a month.
PJM’s current resource profile includes natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewables, demand response and other generation types. The analysis identified no limit to the amount of natural gas-fired generation that could be added to the system before it affected reliability. however, highlighted the potential increased dependency on fuel infrastructure and the need for PJM to further explore grid resilience.
The report added a note of caution on potential increased dependency on fuel infrastructure and the need for PJM to further explore grid resilience.
The report did not address the economics of resource types, factors that might impact a fuel’s deliverability, public policy issues such as environmental impact, including the use of subsidies.
The topic will be the focus of the upcoming Grid 20/20: Focus on Resilience (Fuel Mix Diversity & Security), to be held April 19.
